Name: GEMNYX Gemstone Market Evidence Coverage
Creator: GEMNYX

Some coloured-gemstone auctions have produced strong results in 2026. Others have delivered lower averages, while GEMNYX’s limited repeat retail comparisons show stable asking prices. The evidence supports a market with different trends across segments—not a conclusion that coloured gemstones are becoming more expensive across the board.

CaratX’s June analysis presents a bullish outlook, linking scarcity and demand for rare natural stones to rising prices. Its emphasis on origin, treatment and exceptional quality is useful. Our own findings show why those differences must also remain central when judging price movements. This article compares that outlook with evidence available to GEMNYX by early November. [1]

Growth forecasts are not price measurements

CaratX cites forecasts for a larger global gemstone market and reports three-to-four-fold price increases for selected rubies, sapphires and emeralds over two years. But growth in total market revenue is not the same as appreciation in the price of a comparable stone. Revenue can increase through more sales or a more expensive product mix, even if like-for-like prices remain unchanged. [1]

The article does not provide a linked series of matched transactions supporting its multiplication claim. Strong results for exceptional gems may be real, but those examples do not establish the direction of ordinary retail prices. Nor does a jewellery auction price isolate the value of its loose stone from the setting, brand or provenance.

Emeralds: the quality category changes the answer

The USD 160.78-per-carat emerald result highlighted by CaratX belongs to Gemfields’ September 2025 higher-quality auction. It generated USD 32 million, with every offered lot sold. The next higher-quality auction, in May 2026, averaged USD 146.08 per carat—9.1% lower—and generated USD 26.8 million. [1] [2]

Commercial-quality emeralds moved in the opposite direction. Gemfields’ September 2026 sale averaged USD 9.72 per carat, compared with USD 7.46 in December 2025: a 30.3% increase in the reported auction average. All 44 lots sold. These are different quality categories and different comparison periods, not contradictory measurements of one uniform emerald price. [3]

Reported emerald auction averages in separate quality categories

Data courtesy of Gemfields auction results. Changes compare the two named campaigns in each category. Auction composition is not held constant; these are rough-auction averages, not polished retail prices.

Even within a category, caution is necessary. Gemfields states that size, colour and clarity vary between auctions. Its May commentary described cautious market conditions alongside strong competition for top-tier emeralds. A lower overall average therefore does not mean exceptional emeralds became less desirable. [2]

Rubies: a strong result, but a changed offering

Gemfields’ October 2026 Mozambique auction achieved USD 564.54 per carat, compared with USD 279.39 in February. The campaign average more than doubled, but the issuer explains that October’s smaller offering was predominantly higher-quality. Selected grades and categories had moved into separate Trade Select auctions after the strategy changed in June. [4]

October sold 92,153 carats for USD 52 million; February sold 189,620 carats for USD 53 million. The much higher average accompanied a substantially different offering. Gemfields reported particularly strong prices for larger, fine-quality rubies, which supports CaratX’s emphasis on rarity. It does not establish that comparable rubies generally doubled in value. [4]

GEMNYX therefore keeps this October result separate from its earlier Mozambique auction-average index cohort. Joining it into that series without qualification would risk presenting a change in auction mix as pure price appreciation.

What our retail observations show—and do not show

Our retained October-to-early-November review found unchanged native-currency asking prices in a strictly matched sample of individual stones. That is useful evidence of price stability in those observed offers, not a representative result for every supplier or gemstone type.

The comparison covers products still observed at both dates and excludes changes that prevent a reliable match. It cannot establish completed sale prices or capture every newly listed or departing stone. Currency conversion and crossed-out reference prices must also be separated from actual seller repricing. The underlying review remains retained privately for audit.

Those limitations matter equally in both directions: this sample does not confirm a broad retail rally, but it cannot rule out increases in rare segments. GEMNYX’s consumer asking-price index remains in development. More comparable repeat observations are needed before publishing a broader retail trend.

For gemstone professionals, insurers and investors, the practical conclusion is to compare the right market, quality category and time period. The 2026 evidence includes strong demand and rising auction averages in some segments, caution in others, and stable offers in our limited retail review. There is opportunity to understand these differences—but no evidence here that future price rises are guaranteed.

Disclosure: Market commentary only. This article is not an individual valuation, price forecast, transaction record, investment recommendation, pricing factor or GEMNYX-PE-3.0 methodology change. Rough-auction outcomes and retail asking prices remain separate evidence classes.

References

GEMNYX retail comparison: retained October–3 November 2026 matched-product review; private source evidence available for authorised audit. This is a bounded asking-price comparison, not a published retail index.

Disclosure and source note

Market commentary, not an individual valuation. This article provides general market context and does not establish a price forecast, individual-stone appraisal, transaction record, pricing factor or change to the GEMNYX-PE-3.0 methodology. GEMNYX does not buy or sell gemstones and has no commercial interest in a particular price outcome.

Named source note: CaratX analysis by Archit Mohanty, 16 June 2026, used as background commentary; Gemfields source-issued auction statements dated 22 May, 11 September and 19 October 2026, checked against retained GEMNYX auction evidence; GEMNYX retained October–3 November 2026 strictly matched retail asking-price comparison, with confidential supplier details excluded. Data courtesy of Gemfields auction results. Campaign-average changes are composition-unadjusted and not polished retail price returns.

GEMNYX Market Pulse — Issue 03: Are coloured gemstone prices rising? What our 2026 evidence shows